El Niño Doesn't Affect All Plantations Equally. Here's Why.
Sustainability
For centuries, fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed that warm Pacific waters would occasionally arrive around Christmas, disrupting fisheries. By the late 19th century, the phenomenon had acquired a name: El Niño de Navidad – the Christmas Child.
For businesses rooted in tropical agriculture, El Niño is a familiar and recurring challenge. It arrives every three to five years, bringing extended dry spells across Southeast Asia. Yields tend to fall. Prices tend to move. And the cycle begins again.
But the more revealing question is not what El Niño takes away. It is why some plantations weather it so much better than others.
The gap starts long before the drought
Agricultural researchers have noted for years that El Niño distributes its impact unevenly. Two plantations in the same region, experiencing the same dry spell, can come through in very different conditions. The difference usually traces back to decisions made well before any drought warning was issued.
At Wilmar, soil preparation is treated as a year-round practice rather than a dry-season response. Organic mulches, empty fruit bunches and cover crops are applied across our estates to reduce evaporation, protect root systems from heat stress and improve moisture retention in the soil. When a dry spell arrives, these are not measures we put in place. They are already there. Fertiliser application timing and dosage are also adjusted in anticipation of drier conditions, to support tree health through the stress period rather than after it.
Timely fertiliser application can strengthen crop resilience during dry periods, with nutrients such as potassium helping plants use water more efficiently.
Planting materials matter too. Wilmar has invested over the years in researching and developing seed varieties with greater resilience to weather variability, including prolonged dry conditions. While the payoff may not be visible in the short term, these efforts contribute to the long-term stability and success of future harvests.
Replanting oil palm trees of more weather resistant varieties in Sabah, Malaysia.
Watching for fire
Drought stress on vegetation is only part of what an El Niño dry season brings. Fire risk rises sharply across peatland and plantation areas in Southeast Asia, and the consequences of a fire spreading through dry vegetation can extend well beyond any single estate.
Wilmar's plantations operate a 24/7 fire monitoring system using real-time satellite hotspot detection that covers not just our own land, but a buffer zone extending up to 5km beyond our boundaries. Ground patrol teams work alongside the satellite system. When a dry season is forecast, we heighten vigilance and maintain rapid response capability so that any sign of fire can be suppressed early.
Fire suppression training for ground patrol teams in West Sumatra, Indonesia.
The business of not relying on one thing
An agricultural business that operates only upstream carries El Niño risk in a concentrated way. Wilmar's model spans the full value chain, from plantation through processing and into consumer products across multiple commodities and geographies. When upstream yields are under pressure in one segment, the picture across the rest of the business is not the same. That diversification does not eliminate weather risk, but it does mean no single dry season defines the whole.
El Niño is, in the end, a test of how a farming system was built. The plantations that perform better during a drought are usually the ones that were already being managed as if one was coming.
That is what the Christmas Child has been telling farmers since the 1800s. Some have been listening for longer than others.